The addendum to the Israeli strategic suggested change by AMR 6:21am Mon Oct 6 '03 Due to some misunderstandings regarding the suggested Israeli strategy here is the addendum for print article It seems that respondents here are enjoying limited understanding in Middle East strategy so I will add some addendum to my call for a possible change in strategy. When charting up strategy you have to hold several major building blocks for design: 1. Having a real, true, up to the minute intelligence 2. Empirical tools to analyze the data and facts and coming to a conclusion 3. Conclusions must point to a short term and long terms goals 4. Being clean of side noises(who ever understand it, fine) 5. Tactical goals must not be confused with strategic 6. Taking in consideration political, geopolitical, economical and social that is influential on each one of the final conclusions. 7. Taking in consideration the balance of power locally and globally. I really have no desire to develop all the above into the final conclusions (it could fill up a book easily) so I will jump upfront to the strategic assumptions and solutions, no explanation will be provided here, now. The reader should have an intimate familiarization and understanding in the Middle East Geopolitical and power balances in order to asses the following correctly. Assumptions General assumption 1. Stopping the human terror is costing too much in blood and resources due to the fact that this kind of terror is like an “hydra”, cut one head and you have got to yourself two others on the spot. 2. The Palestinians will be willing to live side by side to Israel only if their leaders will be neutralized. 3. The Palestinian leadership will never neglect its drive to destroy Israel, fulfilling the desire throughout the Arab world that is seeing Israel’s destruction 4. The terror is alive and well due to the support it is enjoying from bases that are “Out of reach” for Israel 5. The blood line of the terror is its finance; those routs of funds must be cut. 6. Intelligence on the terror organizations must be collected using all means that are “Enveloping” the terror activity, such as electronic surveillance and warfare, human moles, political connections and such. 7. Terror organization should be isolated politically and geographically 8. International community should be cooperated fully without exceptions in the war against terror. 9. Israel should remove some stops first and foremost on its action against the terror, not being worried about the international community so much but taking care of its citizens’ security, and start using its power to achieve tactical and strategic wins over the terror. The world political opinion is “Cooked” for some kind of action, denying it in public but silently supporting Israel’s harsher treatment on the terror (Some Arab countries included). The limitation Israel Is putting on itself is actually creating a balance of power between the Palestinian and Israel preventing Israel in exploiting its power advantage and therefore creating a balance of action and reaction that increase the blood shed and is not providing any solution in the foreseeing future. 10. Achieving a non aggression agreement between the Palestinians and Israel in the next 10 years time frame will eliminate most of the long term threats calculated due to the existing Palestinian-Israeli violent activity in the Middle East Middle East - assumptions The most viable threats to Israel: 1. Iraq is not posing a threat to Israel in the short and mid-term. Iraq may become a threat to Israel once the USA is out and the Shiaa part will be directed fully and openly by Iran while the Sonaa part will be directed there by Syria. Both possibilities are uncomfortable to Israel. 2. Saudi Arabia has a great chance to become a threat to Israel. The Saudi Kingdom success in resisting El Quadia internal forces are in doubt and the Kingdom may become the next area that is under direct influence of the World Terror much like Afghanistan previously or the southern (previously) Soviet republics now. Even if that scenario will not happen then the Saudi Royal Family will align itself down the road according the terror organization instruction, obviously highly unfavorable to Israel. Saudi Arabia was armed itself in the past several years with huge amount of US weapon that may become the spearhead against Israel in the short and medium term 3. The “cold peace” between Egypt and Israel will proceed. It is more accurate to define the situation here as a pact of not violent relations. Egypt is suffering from huge internal economical and social problems and going to war against Israel is not on its top priority. Nevertheless, Egypt is preparing itself for war in the past several years and not against Sudan or Libya. Egypt is preparing itself against possible problems from Saudi Arabia and Israel. So Egypt may become a threat to Israel in the long term after Mubarak replacement. 4. Iran is the biggest threat to Israel in the short and medium term and it is estimated that this threat will be over in the long term. Iran is financing and supply the Middle Eastern terror organizations these days and using the terror as its long strategic arm against the “infidel” primarily Israel. In addition Iran is working hard on the development of nuclear arm and according to some estimation it is close as much as two to four years to achieve its goal. It is estimated that internal developments in Iran will change the Islamic militant regime to a more tolerant one carrying its own version of a mixture of Islamic-democratic (?) regime their. That change is expected between five to ten years from now. The greatest threat to Israel may come during the decline of the Islamic militant regime and that may happen concurrently to the completion of the Iranian nuclear bomb. The Islamic regime may show an aggressive face against Israel deterring the movements of replacing it using the newly developed nuclear arm as a springboard against Israel. Once the Islamic militant regime was replaced, it is estimated that Iran will become a moderate or even low threat to Israel in the long term. 5. The Palestinian Authority is posing a tactical and short to medium term threat to Israel. The PA is not a strategic threat to Israel though. It is estimated that Israel and the Palestinians needs about 5-10 years for mid-term non-aggression pact and another 5-10 years to come to a full peace treaty. The “Old Palestinian Guard” must go first, following by staged Palestinian terror decline and dismantling (becoming full political non-violent parties) for this scenario to happen. 6. Syria is the only Arab country that posing a short and long terms threat on Israel primarily by harboring, training and financing the Middle East terror organizations and serving as the conduit for Iran in controlling and supplying those organizations. In addition, though weakened somewhat militarily, Syria is influencing negatively from the Israeli stand point Lebanon and the Kingdom of Jordan that are in a close proximity to Israel. 7. The Hisbulla in south Lebanon is a tactical short term threat and strategic long term threat to Israel. Israel may need to dismantle the Hisbulla if its threat will become unbearable. Israel should encourage the Lebanese Government by way of international pressure to absorb the Hisbulla as the political party of south Lebanon in the parliament. Conclusions 1. Israel should put away NOW the Palestinian “Old Guard”, out of the Palestinian Authority control, being ready for the possible results as a consequences of such action, ahead of time 2. Israel should encourage the Palestinian terror organizations becoming a political force instead of a terror force. 3. Israel should position a “Wall of Steel” against the Palestinian terror 4. Israel should hunt down ANY terror organization’s member no strings attached. 5. Israel should finish as soon as possible the erection of the Security Fence 6. Israel should campaigning and encouraging the international community to boycott Syria economically, financially and politically. 7. Israel should help the progressive, moderate Islamic movements in Iran passively and actively. 8. Israel should impose a real military threat and pressure on Syria preventing it from supplying the Palestinian terror organizations. 9. Israel should not let, Syria harboring the Palestinian terror organizations, taking all viable means in its power in doing so. 10. Israel should prepare for troubles from the Saudi-Israeli border. add your comments Source file

You forget by the main issue: 9:10am Mon Oct 6 '03 print comment Israel must immediate abandon control of the illegally colonized areas. add your comments

....strategy by goldberg 7:00pm Mon Oct 6 '03 print comment ....amr...very good ideas....we should add....finish the fence asap.....buy,beg,borrow,..1000 bomb-attack-patrol dogs,with idf,aked handlers...use them to patrol the bomb targets and the defense line....those two moves would cut the suicide bomber danger 90%...untill then imm.make plans to deport all imm.famliy members of suicide attackers..mom pop sisters brothers grampa grandma and uncles aunts and all first cousins....mean it and do it every single time..this would include arab israelis.....next...the death penalty for all taxi drivers and anyone else who delivers a suicide killer to his destination knowingly...next a full press assault on terrorist leaders..if any arab civilians are hurt...it is on their leaders heads....it is a war...next deport arafat and his 100 or so cadre ..if they resist kill them all ...next go after arafats money in swiss banks...return all of it to the palestinian people......next..hold all moslem and arab leaders including saudi royals personally responsible for terrorist attacks on jews everywhere...after all they sponser them and with no price to pay....at least ,make them run duck and hide.......we must fight this war to win....the americans can fight this war with one arm tied .....we cant....to continue as we are ..is suicide add your comments

We should not talk about "Palestinian Rights" any more... by AMR 9:45pm Mon Oct 6 '03 print comment To the “main Issue”… No, I did not forget…I deliberately omitted that question from this article. We have to stop relating anything that we are saying to the “Palestinian rights” for the time being. We have to stop using the word BUT in any of or assays. I said and saying again “If all the Palestinian doing to achieve their independence is using the inhuman terror acts then they are not deserving a homeland” Nobody deserves independence committing crimes against humanity, NOT like the phony, propaganda infested claims against Israel…but REAL crimes against humanity like the Palestinian terror does. Until the Palestinian terror will not dismantled completely, right into its “root canal” we should stop talking about evacuation of the territories, NO evacuation will take place until then, period. Without initial dismantling of the terror Israel is inviting on itself the tools of its future destruction. We just can not afford it. add your comments

..terrorists have no rights by goldberg 5:54pm Tue Oct 7 '03 print comment ...arab terrorists have no human rights...as they are not in a human condition add your comments

You can;t afford not to by John Veldhuis 1:47pm Wed Oct 8 '03 print comment Without initiating or announcing the dismantling of the main reason for the terror Israel is inviting on itself, the tools of its future destruction are created and maintained by Israel itself. You can not afford not to go back to the '67 borders. Do you really expect the Palestinians will sit still while illegal Israel settlers reap the benefits of the illegal colonization? It is more likely the Israeli attitude will turn something like Gush Katif into a mortar practice range for the PA. And why not, it is their territory anyway, not Israels. Do as Israel does, declare the Katif area "military", give the inhabitants ample time to move themselves, and shoot the place to pieces. Of course I don't really mean this, but this is what you should be expecting. Just a little "settler only curfew" would suffice... The illegal colonies apparently aren't expensive enough for Israel, so fight terrorism, don't become violent yourself, but boycott Israel. add your comments